5. Risk profile

The risk profile of the UNIQA Group is very strongly influenced by life insurance and health insurance portfolios in the Austrian life and health insurance companies UNIQA Österreich and Raiffeisen Versicherung AG. This situation means that market risk plays a central role in the UNIQA Group’s risk profile. The composition of market risk is described in the section "Market risk".

The subsidiaries in Central Europe (CE: Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland) operate insurance business in the property and casualty segment and in the life and health insurance segment.

In the South Eastern Europe (SEE) and Eastern Europe (EE) regions, insurance business is currently conducted primarily in the property/casualty segment, in particular in the motor vehicle insurance segment.

This structure is important to the UNIQA Group, because it creates a high level of diversification from the life and health insurance lines dominated by the Austrian companies.

The distinctive risk features of the regions are also reflected in the risk profiles determined by using the internal measurement approach.

After every calculation for the life, non-life and composite insurers in the UNIQA Group, benchmark profiles are created and compared with the risk profile for each company. The benchmark profiles show that, for composite insurers, there is a balance between market and actuarial risk. Composite insurers are also in a position to achieve the highest diversification effect.

Market risk

Based on the categories defined in the Solvency II standard formula, market risk comprises interest rate, spread, equity, real property, currency and liquidity risk. Market risk is very heavily influenced by interest rate risk, which arises if there is a mismatch between asset and liability maturities. This particularly affects life insurance business. UNIQA has considerably reduced interest rate risk in the last two years by establishing an ALM process as the foundation for creating an ALM-based asset allocation approach.

Aside from a substantial reduction in interest rate risk, the implementation of ALM-based asset allocation caused an increase in spread risk, which is now the greatest single risk faced by UNIQA. Spread risk is defined as the risk of price volatility from changes in credit risk premiums. In the case of fixed-income securities, this risk increases under the Solvency II standard formula depending on rating and duration.

In the last few years, the UNIQA Group has sharply reduced its equity risk, which now plays a rather subordinate role in the same way as currency and concentration risk.

All market risks are actively managed using the existing market risk management tools in the context of risk-bearing capacity and are integrated into company decision-making and management (for example, in quarterly ALM committee meetings at the highest management level).

Market risk categories

Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk arises on all statement of financial position asset and liability items whose value fluctuates as a result of changes in risk-free yield curves or associated volatility. Given the investment structure and the high proportion of interest-bearing securities in the asset allocation, interest rate risk forms an important part of market risk. The average coupon on fixed-income securities is 3.2 per cent.

The following table shows the maturity structure of interest-bearing securities and bonds reclassified as loans.

Spread risk:

Spread risk refers to the risk of changes in the price of statement of financial position asset or liability items as a consequence of changes in credit risk premiums or associated volatility. When investing in securities, UNIQA chooses securities with a wide variety of ratings, taking into consideration the potential risks and returns. The following table shows the credit quality structure for interest-bearing investments.

Equity risk

Equity risk arises from movements in the value of equities and similar investments as a result of fluctuations in international stock markets. The effective equity weighting is controlled by hedging with the use of derivatives.

Currency risk

Currency risk is caused by fluctuations in exchange rates and associated volatility. Given the international nature of the insurance business, UNIQA invests in securities denominated in different currencies, thus following the principle of matching liabilities with assets in the same currency to cover liabilities created by the products. Despite the use of derivative financial instruments for hedging purposes, the currency risks of the investments do not always match the currency risks in the technical provisions and liabilities. The greatest component of this risk arises from investments in US dollars. The following table shows a breakdown of assets and liabilities by currency.

Liquidity risk

UNIQA has payment obligations that it must meet on a daily basis. It therefore carries out detailed liquidity planning covering a period of one year. A minimum liquidity balance is specified by the Management Board and is made available as a cash reserve on a day-to-day basis.

In addition, a majority of the securities portfolio is listed in liquid markets and can be sold quickly and without significant markdowns if cash is required. When investing in fixed-income securities and choosing the contractual maturities, UNIQA takes into account the existing contractual maturities in the business segment concerned.

In relation to private equity investments, there are further payment obligations amounting to €1.0 million (2013: €1.0 million).

Sensitivities

Market and credit risk management is integrated as a fixed part of the structured investment process. Key figures used to measure, monitor and actively manage investment risk include, in particular, data from stress tests and sensitivity analyses in addition to figures from the established market and credit risk models (MCEV, SCR, ECR, etc.).

The following table shows the most important market risks in the form of key sensitivity figures. These key figures represent a snapshot on the reporting date and are only intended as an indication of future changes in fair value. Depending on the recognition and measurement principles that need to be applied, any future losses in fair value could lead to different changes in equity to be recognised in profit or loss or in other comprehensive income. The key figures are calculated theoretically on the basis of actuarial principles and do not take into consideration any diversification effects between the individual market risks or countermeasures taken in the various market scenarios.

Sensitivities

Effect of the ascertained changes in fair value on the income statement/equity

Sensitivities – sensitivity analysis covering the market consistent embedded value for the life and health insurance business

The market consistent embedded value (MCEV) is calculated in accordance with the market consistent embedded value principles defined by the CFO Forum and in accordance with the Basis For Conclusions published in the UNIQA Group in October 2009. The embedded value comprises the assets by fair value and the portfolio value of the insurance business. The portfolio value of the business equates to the present value of distributable profits after tax, net of the costs of capital. The MCEV corresponds to an actuarial valuation of the insurance company on a going concern basis, although the value of future new business is specifically excluded.

The assumptions used in the projection to determine the portfolio value are based on best estimates, i.e. realistic estimates using operating and economic assumptions based on future expectations and historical observations. An embedded value calculation requires a number of economic and operating assumptions. Although UNIQA believes these assumptions to be reasonable and sensible, they cannot be predicted with any certainty because of numerous influencing factors beyond the Company's control. For this reason, actual results may differ materially from the profits forecast in the assessment of embedded value.

The shareholder portion calculation takes into account all available income sources; in classic life insurance in Austria, the requirements of the Austrian Profit-Sharing Regulation are taken into account in particular. In all other countries for which the calculation is carried out, the most realistic growth in future profit participation is assumed, likewise taking into account the relevant legal framework. The projected profits are influenced by assumptions relating to mortality, policy cancellation, costs, capital selection, inflation and investment income.

The assumed interest rate depends on the capital market on the measurement date and is determined using the latest derivation method for yield curves under Solvency II. To facilitate an assessment of the impact from the interest rate assumption, two yield curve sensitivities were calculated in the embedded value, with +/-100 bp applied to the capital market data for the interest rates. For the interest rate assumptions in accordance with the latest liquid market data, the calculation assumes a convergence within 40 years to a long-term interest rate of 4.2 per cent per cent. This corresponds to the latest requirements from EIOPA relating to the derivation method for risk-free interest rates and is also applied in the sensitivity analyses; consequently, the calculation does not produce mere parallel shifts in the yield curves.

The sensitivities specified below only relate to those companies in the UNIQA Group that have been measured using projection calculations (Austria, Italy, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Russia). As at 31 December 2014, the scope of this measurement process covered more than 96 per cent of the life insurance business reserves in the UNIQA Group.

Further risks

The investment in STRABAG SE, the portfolio of asset-backed securities and the assets related to Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA) and HETA Asset Resolution AG (HETA) continue to be carefully monitored.

As at 31 December 2014, UNIQA held a 13.8 per cent stake in STRABAG SE (31 December 2013: 14.7 per cent). UNIQA is continuing to treat STRABAG SE as an associate due to contractual arrangements. The carrying amount of the investment in STRABAG SE at 31 December 2014 amounted to €456.5 million (31 December 2013: 471.4 million), which equated to €29.1 per share.

The UNIQA Group held 1.8 per cent (2013: 1.8 per cent) of its investments in asset-backed securities (ABSs). The valuation of ABSs is subject to model risk because most of the securities included in the direct portfolio and in the funds portfolio are priced using a mark-to-model method. There is a run-off in the ABS portfolio and, due to the general recovery of the asset class, carries a declining risk in comparison to previous years.

In 2014, the nationalised Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank (HAA) was transferred to the “bad bank” Heta Asset Resolution AG, which is owned by the Republic of Austria. The function of this bad bank is to wind down the non-performing portion of HAA, which was nationalised in 2009, in the most effective way while at the same time preserving as much value as possible. In addition, the Austrian parliament passed the HAA Recovery and Resolution Act. This act wiped out HAA's subordinated debt, including debt guaranteed by the Austrian federal state of Carinthia. The bail-in affected subordinated bonds held by UNIQA with a nominal value of €36 million and a loss of €-34.1 million, which is a total impairment loss. Legal action was already initiated in 2014 to protect the interests of the beneficiaries of the cover pool and those of UNIQA.

As a consequence of the decision on 1 March 2015 issued by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) to impose a moratorium on debt and interest payments by Heta Asset Resolution AG, UNIQA anticipates that it will need to recognise an impairment loss in the first quarter of 2015 for senior bonds issued by the former HAA. At the end of 2014, UNIQA had still classified this debt as recoverable because of the guarantee from the state of Carinthia. The amount of the impairment loss will be determined on the basis of the edict from the FMA and the change to the legal position. Within UNIQA’s portfolio, this affects bonds with a nominal value of €25 million and an amortised cost of €21.3 million.

Asset liability management (ALM)

Market and credit risks have different weightings and various degrees of seriousness, depending on the investment structure. The effects of the financial risks on the value of the investments also influence the level of technical liabilities. There is therefore – particularly in life insurance – a dependence between the growth of assets and debts from insurance contracts. UNIQA monitors the income expectations and risks of assets and liabilities arising from insurance policies as part of the asset liability management (ALM) process. The objective is to achieve a return on capital that is sustainably higher than the technical liabilities carried forward while retaining the greatest possible security. To do this, assets and debts are allocated to different accounting groups. The following table shows the main accounting groups generated by the various product categories.

These values refer to the following statement of financial position items:

A. I. Land and buildings for own use
B. Investment property
D. Investment in associates
E. Investments
F. Investments in unit-linked and index-linked life insurance
L. Current bank balances and cash-in-hand

These values relate to the following statement of financial position items:

C. Technical provisions
D. Technical provisions for unit-linked and index-linked life insurance
G. I. Reinsurance liabilities (only securities account liabilities from reinsurance ceded)
G. Reinsurers' share of technical provisions
H. Reinsurers' share of technical provisions for unit-linked and index-linked life insurance

Due to the particular importance of the ALM process in life insurance, the focus below is placed on this segment. For practical reasons, it is not possible to fully achieve the objective of matching cash flows for assets and liabilities. The duration of the assets in life insurance is 6.7 years (2013: 5.8 years), while for liabilities it is considerably longer. This is referred to as a duration gap. It gives rise to interest rate risk and this risk is backed by capital in the ECR model. The discount rate that may be used in the costing when new business is written is based in most UNIQA companies on a maximum discount rate imposed by the relevant local supervisory authority. In all those countries in which the maximum permissible discount rate is not imposed in this way, appropriate prudent, market-based assumptions are made by the actuaries responsible for the calculation. In the core market of Austria, the maximum discount rate is currently 1.5 per cent per year. However, the portfolio also includes older contracts with different discount rates. In the relevant markets of the UNIQA Group, these rates amount to as much as 4.0 per cent per year.

The following table provides an indication of the average discount rates for each region.

As these discount rates are guaranteed by the insurance company, the financial risk lies in not being able to generate these returns. Because classic life insurance business predominantly invests in interest-bearing securities (bonds, loans, etc.), the unpredictability of long-term interest rate trends is the most significant financial risk for a life insurance company. Investment and reinvestment risk arises from the fact that premiums received in the future must be invested to achieve the rate of return guaranteed when a policy is written. However, it is entirely possible that no appropriate securities will be available at the time the premium is received. In the same way, future income must be reinvested to achieve a return equivalent to at least the original discount rate. For this reason, UNIQA has already decided to offer products to its key markets that are only based on a low or zero discount rate.

Actuarial risks

Non-life

The actuarial risk in the non-life segment is broken down into the three risk categories of premium, reserve and catastrophe risk.

Premium risk is defined as the risk that future benefits and expenses in connection with insurance operations will exceed the premiums collected for the insurance concerned. Such a loss may also be caused in insurance operations by exceptionally significant, but rare loss events, known as major claims or shock losses. Appropriate distribution assumptions are made to ensure that these events are also adequately incorporated into risk modelling.

Natural disasters represent a further threat from events that are infrequent but that nevertheless cause substantial losses. This risk includes financial losses caused by natural hazards, such as floods, storms, hail or earthquakes. In contrast to major individual claims, insurance companies in this case refer to cumulative losses.

Reserve risk refers to the risk that technical provisions recognised for claims that have already occurred will turn out to be inadequate. The loss in this case is referred to as run-off loss. The claims reserve is calculated using actuarial methods. External factors, such as changes in the amount or frequency of claims, legal decisions, repair and/or handling costs, can lead to differences compared with estimates.

To counter and actively manage these risks, UNIQA runs a number of processes integrated into its insurance operations. For example, Group guidelines specify that new products may only be launched if they satisfy certain profitability criteria. Major claims and losses from natural disasters are appropriately managed by means of special risk management in the underwriting process (primarily in corporate activities) and by the provision of suitable reinsurance capacity.

In connection with claim reserves, guidelines also specify the procedures to be followed by local units when recognising such reserves in accordance with IFRS. A quarterly monitoring system and an internal validation process safeguard the quality of the reserves recognised in the whole of the Group.

An essential element in risk assessment and further risk management is the use of the non-life partial model. This risk model uses stochastic simulations to quantify the risk capital requirement for each risk class at both Company and Group levels. The model also produces further key figures that are then used as part of the risk- and value-based management of the insurance business.

Life

The risk of an individual insurance contract lies in the occurrence of the insured event. The occurrence is considered random and therefore unpredictable. Various risks exist in life insurance, particularly in classic life insurance. The insurance company takes on this risk for a corresponding premium. When calculating the premium, the actuary refers to the following carefully selected calculation bases:

• Interest: The discount rate is set so low that it can be produced as expected in each year.
• Mortality: The probabilities of dying are deliberately and carefully calculated for each type of insurance.
• Costs: These are calculated in such a way that the costs incurred by the policy can be permanently covered by the premium.

Carefully selecting the calculation bases gives rise to well-planned profits, an appropriate amount of which is credited to the policyholders as part of profit sharing.

The calculation of the premium is also based on the acceptance of a large, homogenous inventory of independent risks, so that the randomness inherent in an individual insurance policy is balanced out by the law of large numbers.

The following risks exist for a life insurance company:

• The calculation bases prove to be insufficient despite careful selection.
• Random fluctuations prove disadvantageous for the insurer.
• Policyholders exercise certain implicit options to their advantage.

The risks of the insurer can be roughly divided into actuarial and financial risks.

UNIQA's portfolio consists primarily of long-term insurance contracts. Short-term assurances payable at death play a minor role.

The table below shows the distribution of the premium portfolio by type and region.

Mortality

With respect to assurance involving death risk, premiums are calculated based on an accounting table, implicitly allowing for the safety loading of risk premiums.

Using risk selection (health examinations) means that the mortality probabilities of the portfolio are consistently smaller than those of the overall population; In addition, the gradual improvement of mortality rates means that the real mortality probabilities are consistently smaller than the values shown in the accounting table. Analyses of mortality data carried out at Group level show that, historically, the level of premiums has been sufficient to cover the death benefits.

Due to the large number of lives insured by the UNIQA Group in the Austrian market, the development of mortality is of particular importance here. According to the 2010/2012 mortality table published by Statistics Austria, life expectancy has increased and is over 80 years for new-borns for the first time.

The reduction in the probability of dying for any given age is causing a huge amount of uncertainty in the annuities business. Improvements in mortality rates as a result of medical progress and changed lifestyles are virtually impossible to extrapolate.

Attempts to predict this effect were made when producing the generation tables. However, such tables only exist for the Austrian population and this data cannot be applied to other countries. In the UNIQA Group, longevity risk relates mainly to the Austrian life insurance companies because very few pension products are sold in the regions covered by the international business.

Homogeneity and independence of insurance risks

An insurance company takes great pains to compose a portfolio of the most homogenous, independent risks possible, in accordance with the classic, deterministic approach to calculating premiums. Because this is virtually impossible in practice, a considerable risk arises for the insurer due to random fluctuations, in particular from the outbreak of epidemic illnesses, as not only could the calculated mortality probabilities prove to be too low, the independence of the risks can also no longer be assumed.

Antiselection

The portfolios of the UNIQA Group, above all in Austria, contain large quantities of risk insurance policies with a premium adjustment clause. This allows the insurer to raise the premiums in case of an (unlikely) worsening of the mortality behaviour. However, this presents the danger of possible antiselection behaviour, meaning that policies for good risks tend to be terminated while worse ones remain in the portfolio.

The right to choose pensions for deferred retirement annuities also results in antiselection. Only those policyholders who feel very healthy choose the annuity payment; all others choose partial or full capital payment. In this way, the pension portfolio tends to consist of mostly healthier people, i.e. from the insurer’s point of view worse risks than the population average.

This phenomenon is countered by corresponding modifications to the retirement mortality tables. A further possibility exists in the requirement that the intention to exercise the right to choose annuity payments must be announced no later than one year in advance of the expiration.

Costs

Besides the risks discussed above, the cost risk must also be mentioned: the insurer guarantees that it will deduct only the calculated costs for the entire term of the policy. The business risk here is that the cost premiums are insufficient (e.g. due to cost increases resulting from inflation).

Health

The health insurance business is operated primarily in Austria (92.4 per cent is domestic and 7.6 per cent is international). As a result, the focus lies on risk management in Austria.

Health insurance is a loss insurance which is calculated under consideration of biometric risks and is operated in Austria “similar to life insurance”.

Terminations by the insurer are not possible except in the case of obligation violations by the insured. Premiums must therefore be calculated in such a way that the premiums are sufficient to cover the insurance benefits that generally increase with age, assuming probabilities that remain constant. The probabilities and cost structures can change frequently over time. For this reason, it is possible to adjust the premiums for health insurance as necessary to the changed calculation bases.

When taking on risks, the existing risk of the individual is also evaluated. If it is established that an illness already exists for which the cost risk is expected to be higher than for the calculated portfolio, then either this illness is excluded from the policy, an adequate risk surcharge is demanded or the risk is not underwritten.

In health insurance, assurance coverage (“aging provision”) is built up through calculation according to the “type of life insurance” and reduced again in later years because this is used to finance an ever larger part of the benefits that increase with age.

The discount rate for this actuarial reserve is 3.0 or 2.5 per cent. If the discount rate of 3.0 per cent is not achieved by the investment, there are safety margins in the premiums that can be used to cover the insufficient investment results. Because a guideline was published by the FMA in October 2013 about the discount rate in health insurance, starting in January 2014 new business has been calculated with a discount rate of 2.5 per cent. This results in an improvement of the risk in cases where the investment results are insufficient. In addition, an additional sub-portfolio of business at older rates has been based on the discount rate of 2.5 per cent. The average discount rate was approximately 2.97 per cent as at 31 December 2014.

The legal risks arise primarily from the effects that changes to legislation have on the existing private health insurance business model. This includes, in particular, changes to the legal framework that make it harder or impossible to adapt to changed circumstances or that sharply reduce the income opportunities. Developments in this area will be observed by the insurance association, and an attempt will be made where necessary to react to negative developments from the perspective of the private health insurer.

The EU Directive on the equal treatment of men and women in insurance, which is implemented in Austria by the Insurance Amendment Act 2006 (VersRÄG 2006), was also taken into account in the calculation of premiums at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2007. This stipulated that the costs of birth and pregnancy be distributed across both sexes. No significant risk to profit has been identified here.

In the meantime, a European Court of Justice decision regarding insurance policies results in a new situation as of 21 December 2012: as of that date only completely identical premiums are allowed for men and women, excluding considerations such as age and individual pre-existing conditions. Experience in 2013 and 2014 has shown that this has not resulted in any negative development of the portfolio structure of new business.

The risk of the health insurance business outside Austria is currently dominated primarily by UNIQA Assicurazioni in Milan (approx. €34.3 million in annual premiums). This Company presently has stable portfolios, meaning that insurance risk scarcely changes. For tariffs with outdated calculation bases, whose holdings are aging, the insured will be converted in the coming years to tariffs with a modern calculation basis. Because this affects tariffs that are not life-long, the conversion problem is less significant than it is for life-long tariffs.

The remaining premiums (approx. €39.2 million) are divided among multiple companies and are of only minor importance there. Only in Switzerland (Geneva) is health insurance the primary business (approx. €8.6 million); however, the Swiss Solvency Test showed there was sufficient risk capital.

Life-long health insurance policies without termination options by the insurer rarely exist outside of Austria, meaning that the risk can be considered low for this reason as well.

Other risks

Operational risk

Operational risk includes losses that are caused by insufficient or failed internal processes, as well as losses caused by systems, human resources or external events.

Operational risk includes legal risk, but not reputation or strategic risk. Legal risk is the risk of uncertainty due to lawsuits or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or other legal requirements.

The UNIQA Group’s risk management process also defined the risk process for operational risks in terms of methodology, workflow and responsibilities. The risk manager is responsible for compliance in all subsidiaries.

A distinctive feature of operational risk is that it can surface in all processes and departments. This is why operational risk is identified and evaluated in every operational company at a very broad level in the UNIQA Group. Risks are identified with the help of a standardised risk catalogue that is regularly checked for completeness. Scenarios are defined for evaluating these risks; these scenarios are meant to convey the likelihood of occurrence and the possible amount of the claim. The results are then presented by the risk manager in the form of a summarised risk report.

This process is usually conducted twice a year.

Business continuity management

According to international standards, the UNIQA Group – as a financial service provider – forms part of the critical infrastructure of key importance to the national community. If this infrastructure were to fail or become impaired, it would cause considerable disruption to public safety and security or lead to other drastic consequences.

As a rule, emergencies, crises and disasters are unexpected events for which it is impossible to plan. However, systems and processes can be put in place to deal with such events. The systems and processes must then be treated as a special responsibility of management and must be dealt with professionally, efficiently and as quickly as possible.

UNIQA has implemented a Business Continuity Management system (BCM) covering the issues of crisis prevention, crisis management and business recovery (including business continuity plans). The main objectives are as follows:

• to prevent personal injury to, or death of, employees or third parties,
• to minimise the impact from failure of key business processes,
• to be appropriately prepared with continuously updated emergency and recovery plans.

The UNIQA BCM model is based on international rules and standards and will continue to be implemented in 2015. The implementation of a BCM system forms part of UNIQA’s response to the requirements imposed by relevant authorities (solvency, critical infrastructure) and the market (calls for tender). This holistic approach to a risk management system not only reduces potential losses following an event but also enhances the quality of day-to-day operations.

Reputational and strategic risks

Reputational risk describes the risk of loss that arises due to possible damage to the Company’s reputation, a deterioration in prestige, or a negative overall impression due to negative perception by customers, business partners, shareholders or supervisory agencies.

Reputational risks that occur in the course of core processes such as claims processing or advising and service quality are identified, evaluated and managed the same as operational risk in our subsidiaries.

The most important reputational risks are presented, like operational risks, in an aggregated form in the risk report.

Group risk management then analyses whether the risk observed in the Group or in another unit may occur, and whether the danger of “contagion” within the Group is possible.

Strategic risk describes the risk that results from management decisions or insufficient implementation of management decisions that may influence current/future income or solvency. This includes the risk that arises from management decisions that are inadequate because they ignore a changed business environment.

Like operational and reputational risks, strategic risks are evaluated twice a year. Furthermore, important decisions in various committees, such as the Risk Committee, are discussed with the Management Board. As outlined in the explanation of the risk management process, the management receives a monthly update regarding the most significant risks in the form of a heat map.