6. Use of discretionary decisions and estimates


The consolidated financial statements require the Group Management Board to make discretionary decisions, estimates and assumptions that relate to the application of accounting policies and the amounts stated for the assets, liabilities, income and expenses. Actual results may differ from these estimates. Estimates and their underlying assumptions are reviewed on an ongoing basis. Revisions to estimates are recorded prospectively.

The most significant instances where discretion has been exercised and forecasts for the future have been used for these IFRS-consolidated financial statements are described below:

6.1 Impairment test

Ascertainment and allocation of goodwill

Goodwill arises from company mergers and acquisitions. It represents the difference between the acquisition costs and the proportional and current corresponding net fair value of identifiable assets, debts and specific contingent liabilities. In accordance with IAS 36, goodwill is not subject to amortisation, but reported at the acquisition cost less any accrued impairments.

For the purpose of the impairment test, UNIQA has allocated the goodwill to “cash-generating units” (CGUs). These CGUs are the smallest identifiable groups of assets that generate cash flows that are to the greatest possible extent independent from the cash generating units of other assets or other groups of assets. The impairment test implies a comparison between the amount that can be generated by selling or using each CGU, the present value of future cash flows, and the value to be covered, consisting of goodwill, the proportional net assets and any capital increases and internal loans. If the resulting value exceeds the realisable value of the unit based on the discounted cash flow method, an impairment loss is recognised. The impairment test was carried out in the fourth quarter of 2015. UNIQA has allocated goodwill to the CGUs listed below, which coincide with the countries in which UNIQA operates. As an exception to this, the Austrian companies were considered individually, and Salzburger-Landesversicherung AG and UNIQA Österreich Versicherungen AG were considered as a group, as was the Sigal Group, in which the three countries of Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia were combined as one CGU, due to their similar development and organisational connection:

  • Albania/Kosovo/Macedonia as “Sigal Group” sub-group (SEE)
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina (SEE)
  • Bulgaria (SEE)
  • Italy (WE)
  • Croatia (SEE)
  • Liechtenstein (WE)
  • UNIQA Austria (AT)
  • Raiffeisen Insurance Austria (AT)
  • FinanceLife (AT)
  • Poland (CE)
  • Romania (EE)
  • Russia (RU)
  • Switzerland (WE)
  • Serbia (SEE)
  • Montenegro (SEE)
  • Slovakia (CE)
  • Czech Republic (CE)
  • Ukraine (EE)
  • Hungary (CE)
  • UNIQA Re

Determination of the capitalisation interest rate

The assumptions with regard to risk-free interest rate, market risk premium and segment betas made for determination of the capitalisation rate are consistent with the parameters used in the UNIQA planning and controlling process and are based on the capital asset pricing model.

In order to depict the economic situation of income values as accurately as possible, considering the volatility on the markets, the capitalisation rate was calculated as follows: a uniform, risk-free interest rate according to the Svensson method (German treasury bonds with 30 year maturities) was used as a base interest rate.

The beta factor was determined on the basis of the monthly betas over the last five years for a defined peer group. The betas for the non-life, life and health segments were determined using the revenues in the relevant segments of the individual peer group companies. The health insurance segment, which is strongly focused on the Austrian market, is operated in a manner similar to life insurance. A uniform beta factor for personal injury insurance is therefore used in relation to the life and health insurance lines.

The market risk premium was determined on the basis of the current standards issued by the Austrian Chamber of Public Accountants and Tax Advisors (Kammer der Wirtschaftstreuhänder). The calculations published by Damodaran were used to determine the country risk premium. The country risk premium in accordance with the Damodaran method is calculated as follows: Starting from the rating of the country concerned (from Moody’s), UNIQA obtains the yield spread from credit default swap spreads with the same rating as risk-free US government bonds, and adjusts this spread for the volatility difference between equity and bond markets. UNIQA also assumes that country risk will decline over the next few years on the basis of subsequent trends.

The calculation also factored in the inflation differential for countries outside the eurozone. In general, the inflation differential represents inflation trends in different countries and is used as a key indicator in assessing competitiveness. In order to calculate the inflation differential, the deviation of the inflation forecast for the country of the CGU in question in relation to the inflation forecast for a risk-free environment (Germany, in this case) was used. This is adjusted annually in the detailed planning by the expected inflation, and is subsequently applied for perpetuity with the value of the last year of the detailed planning phase.

Impairment test for goodwill – ascertainment of the recoverable amount

UNIQA calculates the recoverable amount of the CGUs with goodwill allocated on the basis of value in use by applying generally accepted valuation principles by means of the discounted cash flow method (DCF). The budget projections (detailed planning phase) of the CGUs, the estimate of the long-term net profits achievable by the CGUs and long-term growth rates (perpetuity) are used as the starting point for determination of the capitalised value.

The earning power is determined by discounting the future profits with a suitable capitalisation interest rate after assumed retention to strengthen the capital base. In the process, the earning power values are separated by balance sheet segments, which are then totalled to yield the value for the entire company.

Taxes on operating income were set at the average effective tax rate of the past three years.

Cash flow forecast (multi-phase model)

Phase 1: Five-year company planning

The detailed company planning generally encompasses a period of five years. The company plans used for the calculation are the result of a structured and standardised management dialogue at UNIQA with the participation of UNIQA International, in combination with the reporting and documentation processes that are integrated into this dialogue. The plans are formally approved by the Group Management Board and also include material assumptions regarding the combined ratio, investment income, market shares and the like.

Phase 2: Perpetuity growth rate

The last year of the detailed planning phase is used as the basis for determining the cash flows in phase 2. The growth in the start-up phase leading up to phase two was determined using a projection of the growth in insurance markets. It was assumed that the insurance markets would come into line with the Austrian level in terms of density and penetration in 40 to 60 years.

The capitalisation rate for all CGUs is listed below:

Cash-Generating Unit

Discount factor

 

Discount factor perpetuity

 

Growth rate (perpetuity)

Figures in per cent

Property/casualty

Life & health

Property/casualty

Life & health

Property/casualty Life & health

The discount rate ranges listed for the Sigal Group and the regions relate to the spread over the respective countries grouped under these headings.

Source: Damodaran and derived factors

Bosnia-Herzegovina

17.3

17.9

13.3

14.0

7.1

Bulgaria

10.7

11.3

9.8

10.5

6.5

Italy

10.7

11.3

10.7

11.3

1.0

Croatia

11.3

11.9

10.5

11.2

5.6

Liechtenstein

6.5

7.1

6.9

7.6

1.0

Montenegro

14.6

15.3

10.6

11.3

6.5

Austria

7.8

8.5

7.8

8.5

1.0

Poland

8.2

8.8

9.5

10.1

4.7

Romania

10.3

11.0

10.8

11.5

6.2

Russia

24.3

24.9

12.3

13.0

5.5

Switzerland

6.5

7.1

6.9

7.6

1.0

Serbia

15.9

16.5

13.7

14.3

7.2

Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia as "Sigal Group" sub-group (SEE)

12.9–16.1

13.6–16.7

11–12.7

11.7–13.3

6.8–8.1

Slovakia

9.1

9.7

8.9

9.5

4.8

Czech Republic

9.1

9.7

8.8

9.5

4.5

Ukraine

73.5

74.2

22.2

22.8

7.6

Hungary

11.6

12.2

11.3

12.0

5.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regions

 

 

 

 

 

Austria

7.8

8.5

7.8

8.5

1.0

Western Europe (WE)

6.5–10.7

7.1–11.3

6.9–10.7

7.6–11.3

1.0

Central Europe (CE)

8.2–11.6

8.8–12.2

8.8–11.3

9.5–12.0

4.5–5.5

Eastern Europe (EE) incl. Russian Federation

10.3–73.5

11.0–74.2

10.8–22.2

11.5–22.8

6.2–7.6

Southeastern Europe (SEE)

10.7–17.3

11.3–17.9

9.8–13.7

10.5–14.3

6.5–8.1

The following discount rates were applied in 2014:

Cash-Generating Unit

Discount factor

 

Discount factor perpetuity

 

Growth rate (perpetuity)

Figures in per cent

Property/casualty

Life & health

Property/casualty

Life & health

Property/casualty Life & health

The discount rate ranges listed for the Sigal Group and the regions relate to the spread over the respective countries grouped under these headings.

Source: Damodaran and derived factors

Bosnia-Herzegovina

17.8

18.6

14.1

14.9

7.1

Bulgaria

8.4

9.2

10.6

11.4

6.5

Italy

11.2

11.9

10.1

10.9

1.0

Croatia

10.7

11.5

11.5

12.3

5.6

Liechtenstein

7.1

7.8

7.6

8.4

1.0

Montenegro

15.3

16.0

11.3

12.1

6.5

Austria

8.3

9.1

8.3

9.1

1.0

Poland

8.5

9.2

10.2

10.9

4.7

Romania

11.9

12.6

11.7

12.5

6.2

Russia

16.7

17.4

12.9

13.7

5.5

Switzerland

7.1

7.8

7.6

8.4

1.0

Serbia

16.5

17.3

14.4

15.1

7.2

Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia as "Sigal Group" sub-group (SEE)

14.2–15.5

14.9–16.3

11.5–13.4

12.2–14.1

6.8–8.1

Slovakia

9.6

10.4

9.4

10.1

4.8

Czech Republic

8.5

9.3

9.5

10.3

4.5

Ukraine

27.0

27.7

17.4

18.1

7.6

Hungary

10.9

11.7

12.0

12.8

5.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regions

 

 

 

 

 

Austria

8.3

9.1

8.3

9.1

1.0

Western Europe (WE)

7.1–11.2

7.8–11.9

7.6–10.1

8.4–10.9

1.0

Central Europe (CE)

8.5–10.9

9.2–11.7

9.4–12.0

10.1–12.8

4.5–5.5

Eastern Europe (EE) incl. Russian Federation

11.9–27.0

12.6–27.7

11.7–17.4

12.5–18.1

6.2–7.6

Southeastern Europe (SEE)

8.4–17.8

9.2–18.6

10.6–14.4

11.4–15.1

6.5–8.1

Uncertainty and sensitivity

Various studies and statistical analyses were used as sources to provide a basis for determining the growth rates in order to consistently and realistically reflect the market situation and macroeconomic development.

The reference sources included the following studies and materials:

  • Internal research
  • Damodaran – country risks, growth rate estimations, multiples

Sensitivity analyses of financial instruments

In order to substantiate the results of the calculation and estimation of the value in use, random sensitivity analyses with regard to the capitalisation rate and the main value drivers are performed.

These analyses show that sustained surpluses on the part of the individual CGUs are highly dependent on the actual development of these assumptions within the individual national or regional economies (GDP, insurance density, purchasing power parities), particularly in the CEE markets, as well as the associated implementation of the individual profit goals. These forecasts and the related assessment of how the situation in the markets will develop in the future, under the influence of the continuing financial crisis in individual markets, are the largest uncertainties in connection with measurement results.

In the event that the recovery from the economic crisis turns out to be much weaker and slower than assumed in the business plans and fundamental forecasts, and the insurance markets therefore develop completely differently from the assumptions made in those business plans and forecasts, the individual CGUs may be subject to unscheduled impairment losses. Despite slower economic growth, income expectations have not changed significantly compared to previous years.

A sensitivity analysis shows that if there is a rise in interest rates of 50 basis points in the countries of Romania and Hungary, there could be a convergence between the value in use and the carrying amount or a value in use that is lower than the carrying amount. If there were a stronger rise in interest rates of 100 basis points or more, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Italy, Serbia and Slovakia would also be affected. If the underlying cash flows change by –5.0 per cent, there will also be a risk of a convergence or a value in use that is lower than the carrying amount in Hungary. This list expands to include Bosnia-Herzegovina, Italy, Romania and Slovakia when there is a deviation of more than –10.0 per cent in the cash flows.

In 2015, due to exchange rate effects and necessary adjustments of the discount rate as a result of the changes in the economic environment, impairment losses were recognised in the amount of € 13.1 million for Ukraine.

The following table shows the recoverable amounts at the time of the impairment test for all CGUs with the necessary goodwill.

Cash-Generating Unit

Recoverable amount

Recoverable amount exceeds carrying amount

Impairment for the period

In € thousand

Bulgaria

99,916

27,800

0

Italy

361,076

20,029

0

Romania

183,564

17,601

0

Backtesting

Backtesting is regularly carried out on the planning for the individual countries. The objective is to obtain information for internal purposes on the extent to which the operating units plan their results accurately and on the extent to which details useful with regard to subsequent development are highlighted. Backtesting is intended to help draw conclusions that can be applied to the latest round of planning, in order to enhance the planning accuracy of forthcoming financial plans.

6.2 Investment property

6.3 Deferred tax assets

6.4 Provisions for defined benefit obligations

6.5. Technical provisions

6.6 Investments

6.7 Other discretionary judgements and assumptions regarding the future

© UNIQA Group 2016
 
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