Outlook

Economic development

The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is characterised by increased uncertainty. A cautious assessment currently prevails for the global economy as well as for the USA and Europe. This is due less to cyclical factors than to political and structural risks. These include the continuing unresolved development of global trade relations – particularly between the USA and China – geopolitical conflicts and the monetary and fiscal policy conditions in the major economies.

The extent to which existing and potential new trade tariffs will actually drive up prices is still a key issue. It also remains to be seen whether geopolitical conflicts, above all the war in Ukraine, can be resolved in the medium term and thus generate positive economic impetus. In addition, the markets are increasingly focusing on inflation and the trend in the labour market in the USA and their impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Added to this is the uncertainty as to whether the current investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence is sustainable in the long term or reflects at least temporarily exaggerated expectations.

The OECD and the IMF expect moderate global growth in 2026. Both organisations are forecasting growth of around 3 per cent. Growth of between 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent is expected for the USA, while the eurozone will remain well below this at around 1 per cent to 1.2 per cent. Overall, this indicates an environment that is neither recessive nor dynamically expansive.

In terms of inflation, the situation should continue to ease. The strong inflationary pressures of recent years are subsiding, with no signs of deflationary risks. At the same time, the labour market is likely to cool slightly. Although a significant increase in unemployment is not expected, neither is a renewed upturn in new recruitment.

In Europe, consumer spending is showing a more constructive picture for the first time in a long while. The marked decline in inflation and the ECB’s interest rate cuts in 2025 are bolstering real purchasing power. The European Central Bank is expected to take a largely wait-and-see approach in 2026, with no major monetary policy stimulus currently foreseeable.

In structural terms, however, Europe’s growth potential remains limited. In addition to demographic headwinds, weak productivity trends are the main factor dampening long-term growth. Since the pandemic, productivity has stagnated in large parts of the eurozone, particularly in the major core countries. Positive exceptions such as Spain show that reforms and investments can certainly have an impact. The necessary industrial reorganisation and maintaining technological competitiveness vis-à-vis the USA and China remain key challenges.

The picture is more favourable for Central and Eastern Europe. Underpinned by EU funding programmes and investments, growth of over 3 per cent is expected for countries such as Poland, while Hungary and Czechia are likely to achieve solid growth of 2 per cent.

Business outlook

For the 2026 financial year, our focus remains clearly on further strengthening our core underwriting business. In Austria, we are concentrating in particular on a sustainable increase in profitability and efficiency as well as the expansion of our health insurance business. In our CEE markets, the emphasis is on accelerated, profitable growth, and we therefore expect premium growth to outstrip GDP in 2026 as well. The overriding goal remains to position UNIQA as a diversified and attractive dividend-paying share with sustainable growth in premiums, earnings and dividends.

The geopolitical environment remains unstable, and weather-related damage exhibits a rising trend, meaning that any forecast concerning future business development is subject to uncertainty. Barring any extraordinary negative effects from natural disasters or capital market distortions, UNIQA expects earnings before taxes of between €540 million and €570 million for the 2026 financial year.

With a target payout ratio of 50 to 60 per cent, we continue to strive for progressive and attractive profit-sharing for our shareholders.