40.5 Risk profile

Ongoing liquidity planning takes place in order to ensure that UNIQA is able to meet its payment obligations over the next twelve months.

To cover the obligations, which have a term of more than twelve months, the ALM process uses a maximum, though not complete, maturity match between assets and liabilities. Aside from this, a majority of the securities portfolio is listed in liquid markets and can be sold quickly and without significant markdowns if cash is required.

Regarding private equity investments, there are still remaining payment obligations in the amount of €1.0 million.

Market and credit risk

Stress tests and sensitivity analyses are used in particular to measure and manage market and credit risk, in addition to figures from the established market and credit risk models (MCEV, SCR, ECR, etc.)

The following tables show the most important market risks in the form of key sensitivity figures, along with their impact on profit/(loss) and equity. Depending on the measurement principle to be applied, any future losses from the measurement at fair value may result in different fluctuations in profit/(loss) for the period or in other comprehensive income. The key figures are calculated theoretically on the basis of actuarial principles and do not take into consideration any diversification effects between the individual market risks or countermeasures taken in the various market scenarios.

Sensitivities are determined by simulating each scenario for each individual item, with all other parameters remaining constant in each case.

Life insurance

In life insurance the interest rate assumptions are the crucial influencing factor on the liability adequacy test and deferred acquisition costs. The impact of the implied new funds assumption (including reinvestment) is therefore stated below.

If new funds are assumed with a + 100 bp increase, then the resulting net effect (after accounting for deferred profit participation) amounts to €+8.35 million. A –100 bp reduction in this assumption results in a net effect of €–8.41 million. The effects described relate to the changes in deferred acquisition costs along with the impact on the liability adequacy test. The results were determined using the traditional business in Austria which makes up the majority of insurance provision in the Group.

Non-life insurance

Provision for unsettled insurance claims is formed based on reported claims and applying accepted statistical methods. One crucial assumption here is that the pattern of claims observed from the past can be sensibly extrapolated for the future. Additional adjustments need to be made in cases where this assumption is not possible.

The calculation of claim provisions is associated with uncertainty based on the time required to process claims. In addition to the normal chance risk, there are also other factors that may influence the future processing of the claims that have already occurred. In particular, the reserving process for court damages in property and casualty insurance should be mentioned here. A reserve estimate is prepared here for these damages based on expert assessment, although this estimate can be exposed to high levels of volatility specifically with major damage at the start of the process for collecting court costs.

The partial internal model in property and casualty insurance is a suitable instrument for quantifying the volatility involved in processing. Pursuant to analysis of these model results, it was determined that a deviation of 5 per cent from the basic provision determined may represent a realistic scenario. Based on the current provision for unsettled claims of €2,425 million (excluding additional provisions such as provisions for claim settlement) in the Group on a gross basis, this would mean an increase in claims incurred by €121.2 million.

Health insurance

Health insurance operated on the similar to life technique is now also affected by the period of low interest rates. Since 1 January 2018 only tariffs with the 1 per cent discount rate are being sold. That fact, together with the tariffs sold in 2017 at the discount rate of 1.75 per cent, further reduce the average discount rate.

A reduction in the capital earnings by 100 bp (based on investment results 2017) would reduce the profit from ordinary activities by approx. €32 million.

Non-life

The actuarial risk in the non-life segment is broken down into the three risk categories of premium, reserve and catastrophe risk.

Premium risk is defined as the risk that future benefits and expenses in connection with insurance operations will exceed the premiums collected for the insurance concerned. Such a loss may also be caused in insurance operations by exceptionally significant, but rare loss events, known as major claims or shock losses. Appropriate distribution assumptions are made to ensure that these events are also adequately incorporated into risk modelling. Natural disasters represent a further threat from events that are infrequent but that nevertheless cause substantial losses. This risk includes financial losses caused by natural hazards, such as floods, storms, hail or earthquakes. In contrast to major individual claims, insurance companies in this case refer to cumulative losses.

Reserve risk refers to the risk that technical provisions recognised for claims that have already occurred will turn out to be inadequate. The loss in this case is referred to as settlement loss. The claim reserve is calculated using actuarial methods. External factors, such as changes in the amount or frequency of claims, legal decisions, repair and/or handling costs, can lead to differences compared with the estimate.

To counter and actively manage these risks, UNIQA runs a number of processes integrated into its insurance operations. For example, Group guidelines specify that new products may only be launched if they satisfy certain profitability criteria. Major claims and losses from natural disasters are appropriately managed by means of special risk management in the underwriting process (primarily in corporate activities) and by the provision of suitable reinsurance capacity.

In connection with claim reserves, guidelines also specify the procedures to be followed by local units when recognising such reserves in accordance with IFRSs. A quarterly monitoring system and an internal validation process safeguard the quality of the reserves recognised in the whole of the Group.

An essential element in risk assessment and further risk management is the use of the non-life partial model. This risk model uses stochastic simulations to quantify the risk capital requirement for each risk class at both Company and Group levels. The model also produces further key figures that are then used as part of the risk- and value-based management of the insurance business.

Life

The risk of an individual insurance contract lies in the occurrence of the insured event. The occurrence is considered random and therefore unpredictable. Various risks exist in life insurance, particularly in classic life insurance. The insurance company takes on this risk for a corresponding premium. When calculating the premium, the actuary refers to the following carefully selected calculation principles:

• Interest: the discount rate is set so low that it can be produced as expected in each year.
• Mortality: the probabilities of dying are deliberately and carefully calculated for each type of insurance.
• Costs: these are calculated in such a way that the costs incurred by the policy can be permanently covered by the premium.

Carefully selecting the calculation principles gives rise to well-planned profits, an appropriate amount of which is credited to the policyholders as part of profit participation.

The calculation of the premium is also based on the acceptance of a large, homogenous inventory of independent risks, so that the randomness inherent in an individual insurance contract is balanced out by the law of large numbers.

The following risks exist for a life insurance company:

• The calculation principles prove to be insufficient despite careful selection.
• Random fluctuations prove disadvantageous for the insurer.
• Policyholders exercise certain implicit options to their advantage.

The risks of the insurer can be roughly divided into actuarial and financial risks.

UNIQA’s portfolio consists primarily of long-term insurance contracts. Short-term assurances payable at death play a minor role.

The table below shows the distribution of the premium portfolio by type and region:

Mortality

With respect to assurance involving death risk, premiums are calculated based on an accounting table, implicitly allowing for the safety loading of risk premiums.

Using risk selection (health examinations) means that the mortality probabilities of the portfolio are consistently smaller than those of the overall population. In addition, the gradual improvement of mortality rates means that the real mortality probabilities are consistently smaller than the values shown in the accounting table. Analyses of mortality data carried out at Group level show that, historically, the level of premiums has been sufficient to cover the death benefits.

Due to the large number of lives insured by UNIQA in the Austrian market, the mortality trends are of particular importance here. According to the 2010/2012 mortality table published by Statistics Austria, life expectancy has increased and is over 80 years for new-borns for the first time.

The reduction in the probability of dying at any given age is causing a huge amount of uncertainty in the annuity business. Improvements in mortality rates as a result of medical progress and changed lifestyles are virtually impossible to extrapolate.

Attempts to predict this effect were made when producing the generation tables. However, such tables only exist for the Austrian population and this data cannot be applied to other countries. In the UNIQA Group, longevity risk relates mainly to the Austrian life insurance companies because very few pension products are sold in the regions covered by the international business.

Homogeneity and independence of insurance risks

An insurance company takes great pains to compose a portfolio of the most homogenous, independent risks possible, in accordance with the classic, deterministic approach to calculating premiums. Because this is virtually impossible in practice, a considerable risk arises for the insurer due to random fluctuations, in particular from the outbreak of epidemic illnesses, as not only could the calculated mortality probabilities prove to be too low, the independence of the risks can also no longer be assumed.

Antiselection

UNIQA’s portfolios contain large quantities of risk insurance policies with a premium adjustment clause, particularly in Austria. This allows the insurer to raise the premiums in case of an (unlikely) worsening of the mortality behaviour. However, this presents the danger of possible antiselection behaviour, meaning that policies for good risks tend to be terminated while worse ones remain in the portfolio.

The right to choose pensions for deferred retirement annuities also results in antiselection. Only those policyholders who feel very healthy choose the annuity payment; all others choose partial or full capital payment. In this way, the pension portfolio tends to consist of mostly healthier people, i.e. from the insurer’s point of view worse risks than the population average.

This phenomenon is countered by corresponding modifications to the retirement mortality tables. A further possibility exists in the requirement that the intention to exercise the right to choose annuity payments must be announced no later than one year in advance of the expiration.

Costs

Besides the risks discussed above, the cost risk must also be mentioned: the insurer guarantees that it will deduct only the calculated costs for the entire term of the policy. The business risk here is that the cost premiums are insufficient (e.g. due to cost increases resulting from inflation).

Health

The health insurance business is operated primarily in Austria (92.4 per cent in Austria). Health insurance outside of Austria has been reduced to approx. 5 per cent through the sale of UNIQA Assicurazioni SpA. As a result, risk management in this line focuses mainly on Austria.

Health insurance is a loss insurance which is calculated under consideration of biometric risks and is operated in Austria according to the “similar to life technique”.

Terminations by the insurer are not possible except in the case of obligation violations by the insured. Premiums must therefore be calculated in such a way that the premiums are sufficient to cover the insurance benefits that generally increase with age, assuming probabilities that remain constant. The probabilities and cost structures can change frequently over time. For this reason, the health insurer has the possibility to adjust the premiums as necessary to reflect the changed calculation principles.

When taking on risks, the existing risk of the individual is also evaluated. If it is established that an illness already exists for which the cost risk is expected to be higher than for the calculated portfolio, then either this illness is excluded from the policy, an adequate risk surcharge is demanded or the risk is not underwritten.

In health insurance, assurance coverage (“aging provision”) is built up through calculation according to “similar to life techniques” and reduced again in later years because this is used to finance an ever larger part of the benefits that increase with age.

The discount rate for this insurance provision is 3.0, 2.5 or 1.75 per cent. If the discount rate is not achieved by the investment, there are safety margins in the premiums that can be used to cover insufficient investment results. A new circular was published by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) in July 2017 related to the discount rate in health insurance, stating that the FMA expects that tariffs will only be sold with 1 per cent discount rate as of 1 January 2018. This results in a further improvement of the risk in cases where the investment results are insufficient. The average discount rate at 31 December 2017 was approximately 2.89 per cent.

The legal risks arise primarily from the effects that changes to legislation have on the existing private health insurance business model. This includes, in particular, changes to the legal framework that make it harder or impossible to adapt to changed circumstances or that sharply reduce the income opportunities. Developments in this area are being observed by the insurance association, and attempts will also be made where necessary to react to negative developments from the perspective of the private health insurer.

The premium volume for the health insurance business abroad amounts to approx. €56 million. The health insurance business from Switzerland was transferred to UNIQA Liechtenstein (approx. €14 million) as Solvency II also applies here in terms of supervisory law instead of the SST (Swiss Solvency Test). The remaining premiums are practically divided between all UNIQA insurance companies internationally, but are generally of only minor importance. As UNIQA has no obligations to life-long contracts abroad and the contracts are pre-dominantly one-year contracts, the risk of health insurance similar to property technique must be categorised as somewhat low.

Operational risk

Operational risk includes losses that are caused by insufficient or failed internal processes, as well as losses caused by systems, human resources or external events.

Operational risk includes legal risk, but not reputation or strategic risk. Legal risk is the risk of uncertainty due to lawsuits or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or other legal requirements. At UNIQA, legal risks are monitored on an on-going basis and reports made to the Group Management Board. UNIQA’s risk management process also defined the risk process for operational risks in terms of methodology, workflow and responsibilities. The risk manager is responsible for compliance throughout all group companies.

A distinctive feature of operational risk is that it can surface in all processes and departments. This is why operational risk is identified and evaluated in every operational company at a very broad level within UNIQA. Risks are identified with the help of a standardised risk catalogue that is regularly checked for completeness. Scenarios are defined for evaluating these risks; these scenarios are meant to convey the likelihood of occurrence and the possible amount of the claim. The results are then presented in the form of a summarised risk report.

This process is usually conducted twice a year.

Business Continuity Management (BCM)

According to international standards, the UNIQA Group – as a financial service provider – forms part of the critical infrastructure of key importance to the national community. If this infrastructure were to fail or become impaired, it would cause considerable disruption to public safety and security or lead to other drastic consequences.

As a rule, emergencies, crises and disasters are unexpected events for which it is impossible to plan, although systems and processes can be put in place to deal with such events. The systems and processes must then be treated as a special responsibility of management and must be dealt with professionally, efficiently and as quickly as possible.

UNIQA has implemented a BCM system covering the issues of crisis prevention, crisis management and business recovery (including business continuity plans). The UNIQA BCM model is based on international rules and standards and is developed on a continuous basis.

Reputational and strategic risk

Reputational risk describes the risk of loss that arises due to possible damage to the Company’s reputation, a deterioration in prestige, or a negative overall impression due to negative perception by customers, business partners, shareholders or supervisory agencies.

Reputational risks that occur in the course of core processes such as claim processing or advising and service quality are identified, evaluated and managed as operational risks in the group companies.

The most important reputational risks are presented, like the operational risks, in an aggregated form in the risk report.

Group risk management then analyses whether the risk observed in the Group or in another unit may occur, and whether the danger of “contagion” within the Group is possible.

Strategic risk describes the risk that results from management decisions or insufficient implementation of management decisions that may influence current and/or future income or solvency. This includes the risk that arises from management decisions that are inadequate because they ignore a changed business environment.

Like operational and reputational risks, strategic risks are evaluated twice a year. Furthermore, important decisions in various committees, such as the Risk Committee, are reported to the Group Management Board. As outlined in the explanation of the risk management process, the management receives a monthly update regarding the most significant risks in the form of a heat map.

Sustainability risks

Sustainability risks are not currently classified as a separate risk category but are allocated among the existing categories. Up until now, UNIQA has identified potential sustainability risks with the following topics from the materiality analysis: clear evaluation of damage and rapid assistance, process for handling data and new technologies, customer information and financing, complaints management, avoidance of critical investment, employee satisfaction as well as ethics and compliance. UNIQA’s risk identification process is subject to continuous development and will also ascertain in the future whether an identified risk is relevant from a sustainability point of view. According to the definition used by UNIQA this is the case if a risk exists in relation to ecological and/or social aspects of the sustainability topics.